The American intelligence community publishes a long-awaited report on UFOs

26. 06. 2021
4rd International Conference Sueneé Universe

OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE USA
Preliminary assessment: Unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP)

It provides this preliminary report Office of the Director of the National Intelligence Service (ODNI) in response to the provisions in Senate Report 116-233 (based on: The COVID-19 Act launched a 180-day countdown to detect UFOs), accompanying the Intelligence Authorization Act (IAA) for fiscal year 2021, which DNI After consulting the Secretary

Defense (SECDEF), is to present an intelligence assessment of the threat posed by unidentified air phenomena (UAP) and research by the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF), which would help to understand this threat.

This report provides policy makers with an overview of the challenges related to the nature of the potential threat it poses UAP, while providing the means to develop appropriate processes, policies, technologies, and training for the U.S. military and other U.S. Government Employees (USGs) in the event that they encounter UAPto improve the ability of Intelligence Communities (ICs) to understand this threat. The responsible official in this matter is the Director UAPTF to ensure timely data collection and consolidation on UAP

The data set described in this report is currently limited primarily to the reporting by the US Government of incidents occurring between November 2004 and March 2021. Data continue to be collected and analyzed.

FROM HER prepared this report for the committees of the Congress Intelligence Service and the Armed Services. UAPTF a ODNI National Intelligence Director for Aviation prepared this report in cooperation with other intelligence units from the USD (I&S), DAY, FBI, NRA, NGA, NSA, air force, army, navy, navy / ONI, DARPA, FAA, NOAA, NGA, ODNI / NIM Technology Development Division, ODNI National Counterintelligence and Security Center, and FROM HER Department of the National Intelligence Council. 

Assumptions

The various forms of sensors that register UAPs generally work properly and capture sufficiently real data to allow initial evaluation, but some UAPs can be attributed to sensor anomalies.

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Limited number of high quality reports on Unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) hinders our ability to draw definitive conclusions about the nature or intent of the UAP. The Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) considered a range of UAP information described in U.S. Army and Intelligence Community (IC) intelligence, but although the report lacked sufficient accuracy, we eventually recognized that it was a unique, tailor-made reporting process that allowed providing sufficient data for the analysis of events around UAP.

  • As a result, the UAPTF focused its review on reports that took place between 2004 and 2021, most of which are the result of this new process tailored to better capture UAP events through formalized reporting.
  • Most UAP reports are likely to be physical objects, as most UAPs have been registered on multiple sensors, including radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon detectors, and visual sightings.
  • For a limited number of incidents, the UAP appeared to have unusual flight characteristics. These observations may be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or misperception of observers and require further thorough analysis.
  • There are probably several types of UAPs that require different explanations based on the appearance and behavior described in the available messages.

Our data analysis supports the thesis that if the individual UAP incidents are properly analyzed, it will be possible to classify them into one of five possible explanatory categories:

  1. clutter in the air,
  2. natural atmospheric phenomena,
  3. USG or US industry development programs (Black Ops), 
  4. military systems of our opponents,
  5. other

UAP clearly poses an air traffic safety issue and can pose a challenge to US national security. Safety concerns are primarily focused on pilots struggling with increasingly congested airspace. The UAP could also pose a national security challenge if managed by the intelligence services of foreign powers. They can also provide evidence of technological developments that a potential adversary has developed.

Consistent consolidation of federal government-wide reporting, standardized reporting, more rigorous collection and analysis, and a simplified procedure for examining all such reports against a wide range of relevant USG data will enable a more sophisticated UAP analysis that is likely to deepen our understanding of the phenomenon. Some of these steps are resource intensive and will require additional investment.

Available reports mostly unclosed

Limited data and inconsistencies in reporting are key challenges in evaluating UAP. A non-standardized reporting mechanism existed until the Navy established binding procedure at 03.2019. The Air Force subsequently adopted this mechanism at 11.2020. However, it remains limited to USG reporting. The UAPTF regularly heard during its research about other observations that occurred, but which were never captured in formal or informal reports by observers.

After careful consideration of this information, the UAPTF focused on reports that included UAPs largely observed first-hand by military pilots and that were collected from systems we consider reliable. These reports describe incidents that occurred between 2004 and 2021. Most of them come in the last two years, when the new reporting mechanism in the military aviation community has improved. We were able to identify one UAP from a highly trusted source. In this case, we identified an object as large as a hot air balloon. Other cases remain unexplained:

  • 144 reports come from USG sources. Of these, 80 reports included observations using multiple sensors.
  • Most reports described the UAP as objects that interrupted pre-planned military training or other military activity.

UAP data collection issues

Socio-cultural stigma and limiting detection possibilities remain barriers to UAP data collection. Although some technical challenges - such as how to properly filter out radar clutter to ensure flight safety for military and civilian aircraft - are a long-standing issue in the aviation community, there is a clear set of issues identifying UAPs.

  • Stories from active duty pilots and analysts from the military and the intelligence community (IC) describe the insults associated with observing UAPs, reporting on them, or attempting to discuss them with colleagues. Although this stigma of the past has diminished as leaders of the scientific, political, military, and intelligence communities have taken the issue seriously in public, reputational risks can discourage many observers from testifying. This complicates the scientific observation of this phenomenon.
  • Sensors mounted on US military platforms are usually designed to meet specific missions. As a result, these sensors are not generally suitable for UAP identification.
  • The specific parameters of the sensors and their number, which simultaneously observe these objects, play an essential role in distinguishing UAP from known objects and in determining whether UAP demonstrates breakthrough capabilities in space. The advantage of optical sensors is that they provide some overview of the relative size, shape and structure. Radio frequency sensors provide more accurate speed and range information.

Identical symptoms

Although there was wide variability in the reports and the dataset is currently too limited to be used for detailed analysis of trends or patterns, there has been some unification of features in UAP observations, particularly in terms of shape, size and drive. UAP sightings also tended to occur most frequently around US military training and testing facilities. Admittedly, this may be due to distortion due to the lack of focused attention of a larger number of the latest generation of sensors working in these areas.

 

Some UAPs demonstrate advanced technical skills

In the 18 cases described in the 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics. Some UAPs seem to stand still, flying against the wind as fast as after the wind, making sudden abrupt changes of direction, or moving at considerable speeds (in the order of Mm / h), without visible propulsion systems. In several cases, military aircraft systems recorded radio frequency (RF) energy around the UAP.

UAPTF has a small amount of data available that shows UAP's ability to accelerate and decelerate sharply. All the more need for further careful analysis by scientific teams or groups of technical experts to determine the nature and accuracy of this data. 

We agree to perform further analysis to determine whether the existence of breakthrough technologies has been proven.

UAP probably offers more than one explanation

The UAP described in this limited dataset demonstrates a number of aerial observations representing the possibility of several types of UAPs requiring different explanations. Our data analysis supports the idea that if individual UAP incidents are resolved

will fall into one of five possible explanatory categories:

  1. clutter in the air (waste),
  2. natural atmospheric phenomena,
  3. USG or US industry development programs (Black Ops), 
  4. military systems of our opponents,
  5. other

With the exception of one case where we determined with absolute certainty that the reported UAP case was air waste, namely a deflation balloon. Currently, we don't have enough information in our dataset to assign events to specific explanations.

  1. Airborne Clutter: These objects include birds, balloons, recreational drones (UAVs), or air debris, such as plastic bags, which cause confusion on stage and affect the operator's ability to identify real targets, such as enemy aircraft.
  2. Natural atmospheric phenomena: Natural atmospheric phenomena include ice crystals, humidity, and thermal fluctuations that can be detected on some infrared and radar systems.
  3. USG or industrial development programs: Some UAP observations can be attributed to covert developments and classified programs in the United States (black ops). However, we did not manage any of the UAP cases to match this classification.
  4. Foreign Adversary Systems: Some UAPs could be operated by China, Russia, or other foreign powers or NGOs.
  5. Other: Although most of the UAPs described in our dataset are likely to remain unidentified due to lack of data or problems with their processing or collection, it is very likely that further scientific research will be needed to successfully analyze and characterize some of them. Until then, we recommend collecting such cases of observation of objects into this category.

UAPTF intends to focus further analysis on a small number of cases in which UAP appeared to demonstrate unusual flight characteristics or excessive speed changes.

Air traffic safety and national safety options

The UAP poses a risk to air safety and, in some cases, may pose a broader threat from foreign governments to US military activities. It can also demonstrate groundbreaking aviation technology to a potential adversary.

Growing concerns about airspace

When pilots encounter safety hazards, they are required to report such cases. Depending on where they occurred, the extent and nature of the danger when approaching within range, pilots may prematurely terminate their flight tests or training and land their aircraft prematurely.

The UAPTF has 11 reports of documented cases where pilots have reported a close flyby of the UAP.

Potential national security challenges

At present, we do not have sufficient data to suggest that all UAPs are part of a foreign intelligence program or are only an indicative demonstration of the enemy's advanced technologies.

We continue to collect data on these possible programs. This is especially a challenge for our counterintelligence, because some UAPs have been observed in the vicinity of military installations or military aircraft with our state-of-the-art technology.

UAP research will require further analysis, data collection and sources of investment

There is a need to standardize reports, consolidate data, and deepen analysis. In accordance with the provisions of Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the IAA for FY 2021 and long-term goal of the UAPTF it is necessary to extend the scope of existing work with further UAP observations through better data collection from USG human resources and their technical systems. 

As soon as the amount of available data increases, it will UAPTF able to improve their analysis and thus better assess the determining trends. The primary goal will be the use of artificial intelligence algorithms resp. machine learning for grouping and recognizing similar cases. In the database we also collect information about known air objects, such as meteorological balloons, super-pressure balloons and wildlife, etc. Machine learning can therefore speed up identification by making a preliminary assessment of the nature of the UAP.

UAPTF began to ensure the interconnection of information across analysts and intelligence services, so that collection and analysis are based on quality information and proper coordination.

Most of the data on UAP comes from reports from the US Navy (US NAVY). However, efforts are being made to standardize incident reporting across the U.S. military and other government agencies to ensure that all data is collected on specific incidents and possible relevant activities in the United States. UAPTF is currently working on other reports, including from the US Air Force (USAF) and began receiving data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

  • Although the supply of data from the USAF was historically limited, the USAF launched a six-month pilot program at 11.2020 to collect the most likely UAP cases. The aim was to evaluate how to normalize the future way of reporting and analysis across the entire aviation.
  • The FAA processes UAP-related data during normal air traffic control. The FAA generally obtains this data whenever pilots and other flight crew report unusual or unexpected events during their service.
  • In addition, the FAA continuously monitors its systems for anomalies and generates additional information that may be useful to them UAPTF. The FAA is able to isolate data of interest to UAPTF and make them available. The FAA has a robust and effective information program that can help UAPTF with UAP data collection.

Extended data collection

UAPTF is looking for new ways to extend UAP data collection to other areas and thus increase the efficiency of phenomenon analysis. One suggestion is to use advanced algorithms to search stored data and radar archives. UAPTF It also plans to update its current strategy for collecting UAP data across institutions. The new strategy will focus on already functioning collection platforms and methods at the Ministry of Defense (DoD) and the Intelligence Community (IC).

Investment in research and development

The UAPTF recommended that additional funding be made available for research and development. These could support future study of the topics covered in this report. These investments should be governed by Collection strategy, technical plan of research and development of UAP a UAP program plan.

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