Scientists predict a dangerous increase in the level of the world's ocean

25. 01. 2024
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The sea is responding to climate change faster than expected, and by the end of the century, it can increase its level by more than one meter.

It has been shown that the level of the world's ocean is very sensitive to changes in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system. During the 20th century, it increased at a dangerous rate and the dynamics of this process will not change in the near future.

In the latest issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, two papers have been published that study the responses of the oceans to climate change over several millennia.

The authors of the first article are scientists from Singapore, Europe and the USA, who work under the guidance of Professor Stefan Rahmstorf from the University of Potsdam. This group has reconstructed the dynamics of changes in ocean levels over the last 3000 years.

To do this, the scientists used geological data and sediments of the shells of tiny marine protists, peregrine beetles, which were brought ashore by the tide and remained buried under a layer of alluvium.

This research was carried out on 24 coasts all over the world, from New Zealand to Iceland. After its completion, the authors presented results, among others, for example, that the period of minute temperature drop between years 1000 - 1400 (about 0,2oC) caused a drop in sea levels of notable eight centimeters.

For comparison, only during the 20th century did the level increase by as much as 14 centimeters, and by the end of the 21st century it will be another 24 - 130 centimeters more, depending on the rate of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere.

The same conclusions were reached by the authors of an analogous research carried out by a group of colleagues Rahmstorf from the University of Potsdam, led by Ricardo Winkelmann.

Researchers have developed a computer model of the effects of climate on ocean levels and presented three possible scenarios for development in the 21st century. Level increase by 2100 by 28 - 56, 37 - 77 and 57 - 131 centimeters. These estimates are in line with the official forecast of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at the UN.

Sea level rise is considered a serious threat to cities, island states and countries that are relatively low compared to sea levels, such as the Netherlands or Bangladesh. An increase of two meters would be a real disaster and millions of people would lose their homes.

However, wealthy states can afford the construction of expensive canals, bridges and dams to strengthen their coastline and infrastructure.

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